Yields on Japanese government bonds have calmed down somewhat since last week’s earthquake. However, there were still a few minor aftershocks on the currency markets. The Japanese Yen remained unusually weak – or rather, the strength of the US Dollar against the Japanese currency was increasingly a thorn in the side of US economic policymakers.

Over the last few days, we have seen a small selection of the best scenarios currently on the table. We have already summarized some of them in the issue «Welcome to 2026, expect the unexpected!» However, the newly emerging nervousness is now being explained by a unusually large number of theories – apparently, everyone is allowed to have a go. So let’s take a closer look at a few of them.

The long-missed volatility in the bond markets has finally made itself felt – and not shyly. The rising yields in the Japanese bond market should now be flashing on the radar screens of every investor worldwide.

Silver has become the undisputed star of the markets — breaking new all-time highs and triggering an avalanche of investor questions. In this episode of Pretiorates’ Thoughts, we break down what is really happening beneath the surface of the silver market. Is this a speculative bubble — or a long-overdue revaluation after decades of underpricing? And how should investors think about risk management and partial profit-taking at these levels?

2026 is starting with a false sense of calm. In this episode we highlight five developments that could catch markets completely off guard. bond market volatility, government debt, US Dollar strength and the unexpected comeback of the oil market.

The silver market is going crazy! Up 10%, down 10%, up 5%... But this extreme volatility is explainable. And this is important knowledge for every silver bug—also for the coming days and weeks.

In this edition of Pretiorates' Thoughts, we take a critical look at the common myths surrounding the silver market and explain the actual mechanisms behind its high volatility. For more than 30 years, there have been rumors that the silver market is also being manipulated. While this can never be ruled out, many movements can also be easily explained once the usual mechanisms are understood.

While stocks are taking a breather at high levels, the Silver market is impressively demonstrating how much energy it still has. It has just broken through the US$60 mark. And anything is still possible: another strong upward surge or a pause for breath – because the market is now clearly overbought.

What a rollercoaster ride! Silver has made a huge leap, especially during the last few trading days, while Gold has continued to consolidate. This development does not come as a complete surprise: in our thoughts on November 12, “Silver, enjoy the ride,” we already anticipated daily movements of around 5%. And the upcoming potential increase was mentioned in the thoughts on Nvidia on November 19.

Betting on falling interest rates may currently be the riskier choice. High government debt, crowded rate-cut expectations, rising inflation risks, and the yen carry trade add to the uncertainty. As the yield gap between Japan and the US narrows, Japanese investors may shift funds back home. If markets realize they may be positioned incorrectly, a sharp trend reversal could occur—affecting not only bonds but all major financial markets.

According to our indicators, silver is likely to experience a strong upturn. However, despite the volatility ahead of Nvidia's Q3 results, today's considerations focus on growing market risks. For equities, indicators point to continued consolidation: the S&P 500 has broken through its long-term trend channel, savvy investors are pulling back, hedge funds have reduced their positions, and pessimism is growing. Cycles of volatility and market breadth point to further weakness. AI stocks are expensive, but AI itself is not a bubble. Regardless of Nvidia's results, the signals suggest that consolidation or correction could continue until December 2025.

Current silver demand is being driven less by traditional investors and more by short sellers under pressure to close December contracts before November 28, 2025. This short covering is pushing prices sharply higher, with daily moves of 5% possible. Rising nervousness increases the risk of default, further boosting upside potential. Extreme volatility makes new positions risky, but investors already holding silver should simply enjoy the ride.

Market indicators are highly contradictory. While markets appear expensive in absolute terms, valuations look less stretched relative to economic performance. Institutional investors are increasingly selling government bonds amid debt concerns and shifting into corporate bonds and equities. Fears of over-indebted nations make high stock valuations seem more reasonable. This new source of equity demand could grow in importance. If a correction occurs instead of a breakout, it present a good long term buying opportunity.

Passive investing has left many gold and silver miners undervalued, as capital flows mainly into indexed companies. Despite a 170% surge in the GDM index since 2024, major inflows into mining ETFs have not occurred, with investors favoring physical metals. Traditional valuation metrics are misleading for miners; cash-flow-based metrics show leading producers like Newmont, Agnico Eagle, and Barrick still look cheap. Central banks continue boosting gold reserves, while a report suggests India may allow silver as loan collateral at a 10:1 silver-gold ratio—potentially triggering massive silver demand. Given silver’s geological scarcity relative to gold, today’s 80:1 price ratio appears unsustainable.

The recent correction may unsettle some investors, but the fundamental case for precious metals remains intact. Lower prices simply offer better entry points. Physical demand is expected to stay strong, as geopolitics, debt issues, and supply constraints persist. In short: stay rational. Gold remains a stable store of value, while silver continues to be the market’s volatile but promising outlier.

While precious metals rally, base metals remain overlooked. Copper and uranium stand out: copper is driven by geopolitical tensions and strong future demand from data centers, while uranium has surged due to supply limits and rising nuclear energy needs. Oil shows no signs of recovery, with backwardation fading and weak investor interest. Nickel is deeply oversupplied due to Indonesia, but long-term constraints could spark a rebound. Overall commodities lag due to China’s slowdown, but selected metals—especially copper, uranium, and potentially nickel—offer compelling niche opportunities.

Precious metals are nearing short-term overheating, yet most investors remain underexposed, keeping long-term potential intact. Gold has surpassed $4,000 and silver briefly hit a $50 all-time high. Global currencies have sharply devalued against gold this year, reflecting weak fiscal and monetary policies. Western investors are finally increasing ETF gold holdings, while Asia prefers physical metal. Silver shows tightening supply, with lease rates above 11%, and platinum faces even stronger shortages due to disrupted Russian and South African output. Gold, Silver & Platinum may soon consolidate, but could extend their rallies with a mid- and long term view.

Gold and silver may be heading into a consolidation phase, but many investors who missed the rally are waiting to buy on dips. Their demand helps prevent a deeper correction, making a pause more likely than a crash. Investors already positioned should stay confident — the final and potentially strongest phase of this upward movement likely still lies ahead.

Since April, the US stock markets have been moving in only one direction: upward – driven by the momentum surrounding artificial intelligence. However, we do not see an AI bubble; quite the contrary: if AI and quantum computing begin to interact, we will see enormous advances in medicine, energy, and technology. At the same time, there are early signs of a possible slowdown in the stock market in the short term. This week's Thoughts examine the opportunities and risks arising from this in detail – and highlight what investors should be watching particularly closely right now.

The US Federal Reserve has lowered its key interest rate for the first time in over a year – a move that is not only shaking up the financial markets, but also has political implications. Jerome Powell is signaling further possible interest rate cuts, but the data remains contradictory: while inflation remains stubbornly high, the labor market is noticeably weakening. Short-term euphoria on the markets is being met with warning signals from bond yields. And between economic data, political pressure, and global debt, the question arises: How dangerous is this change of course really – and who benefits from it?

The media and experts are juggling all kinds of explanations as to why the price of gold could rise. Falling interest rates? A fairy tale. Remember the 1970s: while interest rates climbed to historic highs, gold experienced its true heyday. Ultimately, only two factors play a role: real market returns—i.e., returns after inflation—and confidence in the government, especially one's own government.

The financial world is eagerly awaiting the new US labor market data, which will be published on Friday. This data will be a decisive factor in whether the Fed actually reduces interest rates by a quarter or even half a percent. But meanwhile, dark clouds are gathering in another part of the sky. They suggest that the coming fall could be a rather bumpy ride.

US President Trump continues to surprise the world. To outsiders, there seems to be no connection between his actions. As a result, he is repeatedly criticized. Let's call these surprises puzzle pieces. We collected as many puzzle pieces as possible and tried to find a picture—an underlying strategy. It didn't take long for us to conclude that something big could be brewing over the coming years and that the financial markets have (almost) not noticed this yet. If our hypothesis becomes reality, some assets are likely to be revalued.

During this period, central bankers will be meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is no coincidence that Jackson Hole is receiving so much attention. Time and again, historic decisions have been made there. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is sure to comment on a potential interest rate cut. However, we discuss whether this is still possible after last week's PPI in this issue....

There is currently a lot of speculation on social media about the narrowing triangle in the gold chart. In fact, the price could fall to the lower side, which would turn the consolidation into a slight correction. Fear of this could cause investors to wait and see which side the gold price ultimately breaks out on. But even if it were to correct more sharply, it would be another buying opportunity in the medium and long term.

Margin debt in the US has exceeded the trillion-dollar mark for the first time – a historic figure. Looking at the headline alone, one might think that speculation has reached an all-time high. But it's not that simple. Just as the US economy and the money in the system are growing, so too are debt levels – and with them, margin calls. It is therefore very important to take a relative view.

Fed Chairman Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell will need to keep his cool again this week. US President Donald Trump reiterated his call for lower interest rates during a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. We say "Jay, stay strong - even when thunder rumbles above. Another interest rate cut might be popular, but it would not necessarily be wise. Jay, hold your ground!

The US stock market rally since “Liberation Day” in April has been spectacular – and was thoroughly underestimated by many, including us. Back in June, in Thoughts 83, we already hinted that the party could continue for a while, but that the ice was getting thinner and thinner. And the longer the party, the worse the hangover. Regardless, the S&P 500 has gained another 6% since then. It's high time to take a closer look again. The trend strength of the US indices remains in the green – for now.

The market expects interest rate cuts - but there are strong counterforces: The "Big Beautiful Bill" is causing a higher deficit, a decision on the debt ceiling looms in August, tariffs and the weak US dollar are leading to higher inflation - and the weak Japanese bond market is affecting the yen carry trade, the source of refinancing for investments in US bonds and equities...

Pessimism can reach a peak, even if not everyone feels it. Usually, it is only the sellers of an asset who feel pessimistic. And this does not always require falling prices. When pessimism is at its peak, most of the selling has already taken place. If the price does not fall despite the gloomy mood, the bears no longer have the upper hand. Soon there could be more buyers than sellers again, which would mean rising prices. Therefore, such signals are considered early indicators of new or upcoming upward movements. This is precisely the pattern we are currently seeing with Silver and Platinum. This is not yet really the case with Palladium, but it is likely that it will follow as an alternative after a certain delay... ... or

The Gold and Silver markets are proving more robust than many expect. However, it is not the Chinese who are keeping the Gold price up, but increasingly Western private investors - via ETFs. The same applies to Silver, which is showing impressive stability and signs of further potential. Mining stocks, on the other hand, remain in the shadows for the time being - which is not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps they are simply waiting for their big discovery.

Trump wants to boost U.S. copper production via tariffs. But even with investment and government action, new capacity will take years. Meanwhile, U.S. firms may face higher costs than global rivals. This isn"™t just a short-term issue"”it's a structural problem shaped by politics, infrastructure, and speculation. The copper market is now a geopolitical stage: Trump directs, China builds, and the U.S. worries. With inventories shrinking, 2025"™s copper saga is just getting started.

The conflict between Israel and Iran isn"™t just regional, but markets assume global leaders will prevent escalation. That's why Wall Street and others remain surprisingly calm. Yet if this assumption shifts"”even due to a careless political remark"”the calm could vanish fast. Scenarios like rising inflation, higher yields, and falling stocks could swiftly become reality.

From a cyclical perspective, Platinum could soon start to falter. And it is not unusual for the biggest gains to be realized in the final phase of a cycle. However, given its continued strength, we would give more weight to the bullish story than to cycle theory this time around. The trend is robust, investors are disciplined, and the momentum is clear. That's why we would work with stop losses. As long as the trend isn't broken, it's still your friend.

The stock market rally since the April sell-off is lasting much longer than previously expected. And according to the indicators presented today, the party could indeed continue for a little while longer.

In many of our past «Thoughts», we have always taken a critical view of market hopes that interest rates will fall again soon - and so far we have not been proven wrong. And here we are again: Instead of market yields falling, which had been priced in for months, they rose again. Poor Treasury auctions and Trump are, of course, to blame. But the reason lies in the Japanese bond market!

The price of Gold has skyrocketed - and the call for alternatives is beginning. Platinum is obviously already in play, and Silver is likely to follow soon.

Good sentiment is the fertilizer for rising prices. The party is in full swing - but those who leave too late could quickly find themselves out in the rain. So let's remain vigilant.

The indicator landscape for the coming days/weeks and months is showing two different sides. In the short term, the heart rate could rise again.

A few positive geopolitical signals could prolong the current recovery somewhat. But the air is getting thin. The markets could very soon look tired again.

Most investors have not benefited from the rally in the Gold market - and could also be looking for cheaper alternatives such as Silver.

There are growing signs that storm clouds are gathering over the U.S. Bond market. The current flirtation with rate cuts could turn out to be a trap.

Liberation Day isn't just another headline"”it's a turning point for the global economy. In the best-case scenario, cooler heads prevail, and negotiations smooth over the turmoil. Markets are bracing for the worst, and any whiff of positive news could spark a violent rebound.

The mining industry needs less bureaucracy. If nothing changes, the USA will have to continue importing large quantities of Copper. If China then also gains economic momentum, the Copper market will become even more exciting!

Even though Gold has broken through the 3000 Dollar mark, Asian investors continue to be big buyers in the market, although interest has shifted from professionals to private investors. But while Gold is clearly the king, Silver could become the champion in the coming weeks.

Short-term sentiment has already reached a very pessimistic level. However, if one looks at the sentiment indicators from a longer-term perspective, a change in sentiment is only just beginning to emerge. The bears are therefore likely to continue to have their way for a little longer.

The bears seem to have awakened from hibernation. The battle for the trend in the coming days and weeks has not yet been decided. This time, however, we would bet on the bears.

The demand responsible for the rising prices of Gold and Silver is almost exclusively reflected in the physical trade. According to key figures such as cash flow in relation to the share price, the senior Gold miners are extremely undervalued.

Stock markets are still close to all-time highs. But the question of whether things can get even better is definitely on the table.

The hectic pace in physical Gold and Silver trading in London and on the COMEX is actually only related to professional trading. It is more likely that it is a problem with the availability of the required bars (100oz & 400oz) and less about physical Gold in general. In other words, the hectic pace could also subside very quickly without much happening to the price.

AI stocks may take a back seat for a while and caution towards the overall market is warranted.

Investors can continue to take it easy at the start of the new year. And should the stock markets climb a little higher, there would probably be more opportunities to sell.

There are increasing signs that the consolidation in the Gold and Silver markets should soon be over. The headwinds are dying down. This means that there is a good chance that the precious metals will once again approach their all-time highs, which they reached last fall.

Due to the carry trade, the Japanese Yen has a very high correlation with the yield of the US Treasury with a term of 10 years. According to this correlation, the market price of the US Treasury should continue to fall - which would cause the yield to rise further.

The supply from the Middle East could come under threat - which could suddenly cause the upside potential of the oil markets to rise sharply. It is therefore reasonable to think that one of the surprises of 2025 could occur in the Oil market.

For investors, who in their recent state of intoxication expected further interest rate cuts, the relatively aggressive message from Fed Chairman Jay Powell came as a "˜surprise"™. We mentioned in Thoughts 46, 48, 49 and again in issue 54 that this interest rate fantasy may not correspond to reality.

The news of the Chinese purchases is unlikely to have contributed much to the upswing. In the medium and long term, precious metals remain very promising. In the short term, it is possible to wait and see.

There are currently no indications of becoming active before Christmas. The stock markets are showing an increasing number of indications that the good mood will soon flatten out.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index will be published as early as Monday, December 2, 2024. It is not only a very important input for the stock markets, as can be seen from the historical correlation of various assets.

A mystical cycle leads to a stock market correction of at least 20% every 17 years. In 2025, it would happen again.

Selling pressure in the Gold market was very strong. In addition, there are fewer arguments in favor of buying the precious metal following the US elections. However, this is likely to be only a short-term phenomenon.

Without further support from the indicators, chasing the stock market rally is a big bet.

A deterioration in sentiment could lie ahead. And the days after the election could play a decisive role in this.

We can therefore assume that market expectations of lower interest rates are not likely to return any time soon (although the desires will).

And although the Gold price is setting new records every day, the number of outstanding Gold ETFs is still around 25% below the record level of 2020. This is a bullish input.

In fact, the 5.31-year CPI cycle shows that inflation is apparently dying at the moment, but is not dead. Quite the opposite.

The Chinese stock markets are closed from October 1st until October 8th for the "Golden Week. However, the timing of the financial and economic measures taken by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) was simply perfect.

Only 10 % of Chinese are invested in the stock market. So if it advances by over 15% in only one week, 90% of Chinese don't care.

It is interesting to note that the long term bond market volatility cycle is again pointing to the possibility of rising volatility over the next few months - which may indicate unrest in the bond market.

Will it really be possible for the FED to cut interest rates as much as the market is currently pricing in? After all, it can hardly be assumed that rising inflation would be ignored and not combated with high interest rates.

Sell-offs that come with a heavy dose of panic are almost always subject to a second test.

Even if the market finally feels confirmed that lower interest rates are coming. Perhaps this development is not so positive.

The short-term sentiment indicators are already showing extreme values again, while the long-term indicators continue to leave a rather bearish impression.

The market - or rather the market observers - assume that the Gold price has recently risen to an all-time high thanks to hopes of lower interest rates. We only partly agree with these arguments. A key driver for us is the recent increase in the likelihood that Kamala Harris could actually become US president.

The strength of the shares of cyclical companies also tells us a lot about the strength of the economy. Since July 1, 2024, this indicator has been telling us that we should only be invested in cyclical stocks up to a maximum of 50%.

It has often been observed in the past that the Gold price has come under selling pressure along with the stock markets. However, the fact that the Gold price has (so far) not suffered more can be interpreted as a sign of strength.

When pessimism is at its strongest, shaky investors have already sold their positions. A good prerequisite for there to be more buyers than sellers again - and thus rising market prices.

The US dollar is (still) one of the most important safe-haven currencies. When economic times get tough, the US currency usually sees increased demand and rises.

Gold is rising, but not because of Chinese investors. Silver is not rising at all. It is obvious that the potential next US President Trump - and also his Vice President Vance - could be responsible for the rising gold price: they want to focus on China rather than Ukraine. This should further boost the de-dollarization.

The Magnificent Seven are responsible for the trend of the US indices. So you can analyze these seven stocks and get an idea of where the US market will be heading in the near future. Not how healthy it is, just where it could go.

The US stock market continues to rise, while almost all other markets worldwide have long since entered a consolidation phase. The question is more topical than ever: how long can the US market maintain its solo run?

The question of the potential for interest rate cuts in the USA remains open. One of the most important long-term economic indicators is the Conference Board US Leading Index (LEI). Interestingly, for around a year now the LEI has been telling a different story to the US stock market.

According to Smart Investors Action, the consolidation of investors in Shanghai should soon be over. There are clear signs that there is less distribution.

And again on the Sprott Uranium Trust: it is currently trading at a discount of almost 15%... Who wants a dollar for 85 cents?

It is highly likely that the Gold and Silver markets have consolidated because retail investors in the West continue to be among the sellers. The number of outstanding ETFs with Gold coverage has continued to fall in recent weeks.

After a long hibernation, the bears seem to be hungry.

The price of Gold and Silver is being dictated by the Chinese market these days. Chinese investors in Shanghai are still paying a premium for physical Gold.

The stock market wants lower interest rates - or rather, it has been expecting them for months. Justified? The US economy looks very robust, so higher interest rates would actually be the order of the day.

Although the gold price climbs to new all-time highs almost daily, the number of new gold investments on the long side has hardly increased in recent months. Demand continues to come from China and the rally is being completely missed in the West. Nevertheless, we can expect the number of long positions held by non-commercials (funds, large investors) to rise sharply ahead of a longer-term top.

Ten days ago we mentioned in Pretiorates' Thoughts 26: Chapter 2 should start with Precious Metals. Even if there are further consolidations and emotional sell-offs in the near future, as long as a premium is paid on physical Gold and Silver in Shanghai, the bull market is likely to continue.

The chart of the week is the 'Risk Factor in Currency Futures': If investors seek positions in 'safe' currencies, they are less willing to take risks in the stock market and Wall Street usually reacts with corrections. Most recently, the risk factor fell massively into negative territory, indicating a 'risk off' attitude.

The very strong Chinese demand for Gold is also reflected in the Gold ETFs traded in Shanghai: the number of outstanding Gold ETFs with physical backing is close to an all-time high.

After the brief correction in the S&P500 index, optimism is strengthening again. This is positive in the short term. However, a slightly longer-term perspective also shows that smart investors are continuing to distribute.

The short-term sentiment on Wall Street has recently been very negative and suggests that the recovery will continue.

History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes... This Fractial-Chart is not really meant seriously, but the extremely high correlation of +0.92 between the movements of 1929 and the current one is quite overwhelming.

All global markets show that smart investors are distributing their investments.

The movement of the Japanese currency has an impact on the market yield of US Treasuries. The current correlation suggests that US Treasuries should fall further or yields should rise... Not really what the financial markets are expecting at the moment.

While investors in the West are using the higher gold price to take profits, Chinese investors are continuing to accumulate.

Speculation against the Japanese yen is increasing. Asset managers' short positions in futures trading have increased once again. When so many investors speculate on the same trade, this often goes wrong as contrarians could speculate against it.

The strength of all other currencies determines how strong the US dollar is against them. And at the moment it looks as if some other currencies are stronger than the US dollar. This means that we should expect the US currency to weaken in the future.

Precious metals appear to be overbought in the short term. But a Bank of America chart shows that 75% of professional investors have less than 1% of their asset allocation in Gold.