Pretiorates' Past Thoughts
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 87 – Gold and Silver with tailwinds from another direction
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July 2, 2025
The Gold and Silver markets are proving more robust than many expect. However, it is not the Chinese who are keeping the Gold price up, but increasingly Western private investors – via ETFs. The same applies to Silver, which is showing impressive stability and signs of further potential. Mining stocks, on the other hand, remain in the shadows for the time being – which is not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps they are simply waiting for their big discovery.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 86 – Red Metal, Red Alert
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June 24, 2025
Trump wants to boost U.S. copper production via tariffs. But even with investment and government action, new capacity will take years. Meanwhile, U.S. firms may face higher costs than global rivals. This isn’t just a short-term issue—it’s a structural problem shaped by politics, infrastructure, and speculation. The copper market is now a geopolitical stage: Trump directs, China builds, and the U.S. worries. With inventories shrinking, 2025’s copper saga is just getting started.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 85 – The Oil Heat Wave That Could Ice the Market
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June 17, 2025
The conflict between Israel and Iran isn’t just regional, but markets assume global leaders will prevent escalation. That’s why Wall Street and others remain surprisingly calm. Yet if this assumption shifts—even due to a careless political remark—the calm could vanish fast. Scenarios like rising inflation, higher yields, and falling stocks could swiftly become reality.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 84 – The little brother finally becomes the big winner
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June 10, 2025
From a cyclical perspective, Platinum could soon start to falter. And it is not unusual for the biggest gains to be realized in the final phase of a cycle. However, given its continued strength, we would give more weight to the bullish story than to cycle theory this time around. The trend is robust, investors are disciplined, and the momentum is clear. That's why we would work with stop losses. As long as the trend isn't broken, it's still your friend.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 83 – Party Too Long, Face the Hangover
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June 3, 2025
The stock market rally since the April sell-off is lasting much longer than previously expected. And according to the indicators presented today, the party could indeed continue for a little while longer. However, the risk of a severe hangover one of these mornings is continuing to rise sharply.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 82 – A Big Beautiful Bill for the Bond Market
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May 27, 2025
In many of our past «Thoughts», we have always taken a critical view of market hopes that interest rates will fall again soon – and so far we have not been proven wrong. And here we are again: Instead of market yields falling, which had been priced in for months, they rose again. Poor Treasury auctions and Trump are, of course, to blame. But the reason lies in the Japanese bond market!
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 81 – The Rise of the Alternative Metals
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May 21, 2025
The price of Gold has skyrocketed – and the call for alternatives is beginning. Platinum is obviously already in play, and Silver is likely to follow soon.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 80 – From Fear at warp speed to Euphoria
May 14, 2025
Good sentiment is the fertilizer for rising prices. The party is in full swing – but those who leave too late could quickly find themselves out in the rain. So let's remain vigilant…
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 79 – – When correlations crackle
May 5, 2025
The indicator landscape for the coming days/weeks and months is showing two different sides. In the short term, the heart rate could rise again.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 78 – The markets still have their finger on the trigger
April 24, 2025
A few positive geopolitical signals could prolong the current recovery somewhat. But the air is getting thin. The markets could very soon look tired again.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 77 – Gold gets the glory, Silver could steal the show
April 16, 2025
Most investors have not benefited from the rally in the Gold market – and could also be looking for cheaper alternatives such as Silver.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 76 – The Market Flirts with Dovish Dreams, while Bonds Start to Sweat
April 9, 2025
There are growing signs that storm clouds are gathering over the U.S. Bond market. The current flirtation with rate cuts could turn out to be a trap.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 75 – Tariffic Times Ahead… but not for the financial markets
April 4, 2025
Liberation Day isn’t just another headline—it’s a turning point for the global economy. In the best-case scenario, cooler heads prevail, and negotiations smooth over the turmoil. Markets are bracing for the worst, and any whiff of positive news could spark a violent rebound.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 74 – Make Copper Expensive Again: The Trump Tariff Effect
March 29, 2025
The mining industry needs less bureaucracy. If nothing changes, the USA will have to continue importing large quantities of Copper. If China then also gains economic momentum, the Copper market will become even more exciting!
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 73 – Gold is king, but Silver could now become the champion
March 23, 2025
Even though Gold has broken through the 3000 Dollar mark, Asian investors continue to be big buyers in the market, although interest has shifted from professionals to private investors. But while Gold is clearly the king, Silver could become the champion in the coming weeks.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 72 – How sharp are the bears' claws?
March 10, 2025
Short-term sentiment has already reached a very pessimistic level. However, if one looks at the sentiment indicators from a longer-term perspective, a change in sentiment is only just beginning to emerge. The bears are therefore likely to continue to have their way for a little longer...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 71 – Are the bears waking up from their hibernation?
March 3, 2025
The bears seem to have awakened from hibernation. The battle for the trend in the coming days and weeks has not yet been decided. This time, however, we would bet on the bears...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 70 – No love for the Gold Miners
February 26, 2025
The demand responsible for the rising prices of Gold and Silver is almost exclusively reflected in the physical trade. According to key figures such as cash flow in relation to the share price, the senior Gold miners are extremely undervalued.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 69 – As good as it gets?
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February 19, 2025
Stock markets are still close to all-time highs. But the question of whether things can get even better is definitely on the table...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 68 – FOMO in the Gold market?
February 10, 2025
The hectic pace in physical Gold and Silver trading in London and on the COMEX is actually only related to professional trading. It is more likely that it is a problem with the availability of the required bars (100oz & 400oz) and less about physical Gold in general. In other words, the hectic pace could also subside very quickly without much happening to the price.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 67 – Deepseek goes from a gentle breeze to a hurricane
January 28, 2025
AI stocks may take a back seat for a while and caution towards the overall market is warranted...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 66 – Buy, babe buy – or maybe not?
January 21, 2025
Investors can continue to take it easy at the start of the new year. And should the stock markets climb a little higher, there would probably be more opportunities to sell.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 65 – The Goldbugs could be getting ready for another outing
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January 15, 2025
There are increasing signs that the consolidation in the Gold and Silver markets should soon be over. The headwinds are dying down. This means that there is a good chance that the precious metals will once again approach their all-time highs, which they reached last fall.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 64 – Somebody's gonna get hurt...
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January 10, 2025
Due to the carry trade, the Japanese Yen has a very high correlation with the yield of the US Treasury with a term of 10 years. According to this correlation, the market price of the US Treasury should continue to fall – which would cause the yield to rise further...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 63 – One of the surprises in 2025 could develop in the oil market...
January 3, 2025
The supply from the Middle East could come under threat - which could suddenly cause the upside potential of the oil markets to rise sharply. It is therefore reasonable to think that one of the surprises of 2025 could occur in the Oil market...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 62 – Up with the escalator, down with the elevator...
December 19, 2024
For investors, who in their recent state of intoxication expected further interest rate cuts, the relatively aggressive message from Fed Chairman Jay Powell came as a ‘surprise’. We mentioned in Thoughts 46, 48, 49 and again in issue 54 that this interest rate fantasy may not correspond to reality.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 61 – Hurray, China is buying Gold again!
December 10, 2024
The news of the Chinese purchases is unlikely to have contributed much to the upswing. In the medium and long term, precious metals remain very promising. In the short term, it is possible to wait and see.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 60 – It is the last month of 2024
December 4, 2024
There are currently no indications of becoming active before Christmas. The stock markets are showing an increasing number of indications that the good mood will soon flatten out.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 59 – The ISM economic figures and the power behind them
November 27, 2024
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index will be published as early as Monday, December 2, 2024. It is not only a very important input for the stock markets, as can be seen from the historical correlation of various assets.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 58 – Will the mysterious 17 Year Cycle continue?
November 19, 2024
A mystical cycle leads to a stock market correction of at least 20% every 17 years. In 2025, it would happen again...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 57 – Trading Gold is unlike trading anything else
November 14, 2024
Selling pressure in the Gold market was very strong. In addition, there are fewer arguments in favor of buying the precious metal following the US elections. However, this is likely to be only a short-term phenomenon.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 56 – Buy when the cannons thunder and sell when the angels sing...
November 8, 2024
Without further support from the indicators, chasing the stock market rally is a big bet.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 55 – Higher Volatility ahead
October 31, 2024
A deterioration in sentiment could lie ahead. And the days after the election could play a decisive role in this.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 54 – Are hopes of lower interest rates still alive?
October 25, 2024
We can therefore assume that market expectations of lower interest rates are not likely to return any time soon (although the desires will).
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 53 – Believe it or not, the euphoria in the precious metals market is still too low
October 18, 2024And although the Gold price is setting new records every day, the number of outstanding Gold ETFs is still around 25% below the record level of 2020...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 52 – Inflation seems to be dying, but it is not dead
October 10, 2024
In fact, the 5.31-year CPI cycle shows that inflation is apparently dying at the moment, but is not dead. Quite the opposite...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 51 – Will the Chinese party be followed by a hangover?
October 4, 2024
The Chinese stock markets are closed from October 1st until October 8th for the ‘Golden Week’. However, the timing of the financial and economic measures taken by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) was simply perfect.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 50 – Does the sun really rise in China?
September 27, 2024
Only 10 % of Chinese are invested in the stock market. So if it advances by over 15% in only one week, 90% of Chinese don't care.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 49 – Interest rates are set to fall again, but for how long and by how much?
September 20, 2024
It is interesting to note that the long term bond market volatility cycle is again pointing to the possibility of rising volatility over the next few months – which may indicate unrest in the bond market...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 48 - The beautiful dreams of lower interest rates
September 13, 2024
Will it really be possible for the FED to cut interest rates as much as the market is currently pricing in? After all, it can hardly be assumed that rising inflation would be ignored and not combated with high interest rates...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 47 - The second wave of selling on the stock market has begun
September 5, 2024
Sell-offs that come with a heavy dose of panic are almost always subject to a second test.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 46 - The bond market should be careful what it wishes for
August 30, 2024
Even if the market finally feels confirmed that lower interest rates are coming. Perhaps this development is not so positive...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 45 - The bulls in the stock market shouldn't feel like winners yet
August 26, 2024
The short-term sentiment indicators are already showing extreme values again, while the long-term indicators continue to leave a rather bearish impression.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 44 - Gold is watching the growing possibility of Kamalanomics
August 19, 2024
The market – or rather the market observers – assume that the Gold price has recently risen to an all-time high thanks to hopes of lower interest rates. We only partly agree with these arguments. A key driver for us is the recent increase in the likelihood that Kamala Harris could actually become US president.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 43 - After the turmoil, there is still no green light
August 14, 2024
The strength of the shares of cyclical companies also tells us a lot about the strength of the economy. Since July 1, 2024, this indicator has been telling us that we should only be invested in cyclical stocks up to a maximum of 50%...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 42 - Gold did exactly what was expected of it
August 8, 2024
It has often been observed in the past that the Gold price has come under selling pressure along with the stock markets. However, the fact that the Gold price has (so far) not suffered more can be interpreted as a sign of strength.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 41 - Waking up from the dream world
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August 6, 2024
When pessimism is at its strongest, shaky investors have already sold their positions. A good prerequisite for there to be more buyers than sellers again - and thus rising market prices...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 40 - The US dollar should not yet be written off
July 28, 2024
The US dollar is (still) one of the most important safe-haven currencies. When economic times get tough, the US currency usually sees increased demand and rises.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 39 - Gold rises without its brother silver - what's going on?
July 18, 2024
Gold is rising, but not because of Chinese investors. Silver is not rising at all. It is obvious that the potential next US President Trump - and also his Vice President Vance - could be responsible for the rising gold price: they want to focus on China rather than Ukraine. This should further boost the de-dollarization...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 38 - How magnificent are the seven individual magnificent?
July 8, 2024
The seven Magnificent stocks are responsible for the trend of the US indices. So you can analyze these seven stocks and get an idea of where the US market will be heading in the near future. Not how healthy it is, just where it could go.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 37 - The US Equity Market, the last man standing?
July 4, 2024
The US stock market continues to rise, while almost all other markets worldwide have long since entered a consolidation phase. The question is more topical than ever: how long can the US market maintain its solo run?
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 36 - The potential for interest rate cuts is still alive
June 25, 2024
The question of the potential for interest rate cuts in the USA remains open. One of the most important long-term economic indicators is the Conference Board US Leading Index (LEI). Interestingly, for around a year now the LEI has been telling a different story to the US stock market...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 35 - Gold and silver are likely to feel another hooray before the summer vacations
June 19, 2024
According to Smart Investors Action, the consolidation of investors in Shanghai should soon be over. There are clear signs that there is less distribution...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 34 - Base metals could soon take off from the base again
June 13, 2024
And again on the Sprott Uranium Trust: it is currently trading at a discount of almost 15%... Who wants a dollar for 85 cents?
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 33 - A surprising development in the Gold market
June 6, 2024
It is highly likely that the Gold and Silver markets have consolidated because retail investors in the West continue to be among the sellers. The number of outstanding ETFs with Gold coverage has continued to fall in recent weeks.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 32 - World equity indices: Are the bears coming back?
May 30, 2024
After a long hibernation, the bears seem to be hungry...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 31 - Gold & Silver rally, made in China
May 28, 2024
The price of Gold and Silver is being dictated by the Chinese market these days. Chinese investors in Shanghai are still paying a premium for physical Gold.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 30 - US Economy: This time is different - is it?
May 23, 2024
The stock market wants lower interest rates - or rather, it has been expecting them for months. Justified? The US economy looks very robust, so higher interest rates would actually be the order of the day.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 29 - The futures-market tells us a long story
May 21, 2024
Although the gold price climbs to new all-time highs almost daily, the number of new gold investments on the long side has hardly increased in recent months. Demand continues to come from China and the rally is being completely missed in the West. Nevertheless, we can expect the number of long positions held by non-commercials (funds, large investors) to rise sharply ahead of a longer-term top...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 28 - Precious metals and base metals out of control
May 17, 2024
Ten days ago we mentioned in Pretiorates' Thoughts 26: Chapter 2 should start with Precious Metals. Even if there are further consolidations and emotional sell-offs in the near future, as long as a premium is paid on physical Gold and Silver in Shanghai, the bull market is likely to continue.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 27 - It is still a technical recovery – and it should be over soon
May 14, 2024
The chart of the week is the 'Risk Factor in Currency Futures': If investors seek positions in 'safe' currencies, they are less willing to take risks in the stock market and Wall Street usually reacts with corrections. Most recently, the risk factor fell massively into negative territory, indicating a 'risk off' attitude...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 26 - Chapter 2 should start with Precious Metals
May 7, 2024
The very strong Chinese demand for Gold is also reflected in the Gold ETFs traded in Shanghai: the number of outstanding Gold ETFs with physical backing is close to an all-time high...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 25 - Do the stock markets only see a short-term recovery?
May 6, 2024
After the brief correction in the S&P500 index, optimism is strengthening again. This is positive in the short term. However, a slightly longer-term perspective also shows that smart investors are continuing to distribute.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 24 - Strange movements continue...
April 29, 2024
The short-term sentiment on Wall Street has recently been very negative and suggests that the recovery will continue.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 23 - The weak Yen and its impact
April 20, 2024
The movement of the Japanese currency has an impact on the market yield of US Treasuries. The current correlation suggests that US Treasuries should fall further or yields should rise... Not really what the financial markets are expecting at the moment...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 22 - Interesting developments
April 23, 2024
History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes... This Fractial-Chart is not really meant seriously, but the extremely high correlation of +0.92 between the movements of 1929 and the current one is quite overwhelming...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 21 - World Indices
April 22, 2024
All global markets show that smart investors are distributing their investments.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 20 - Is China the big Gold buyer?
April 18, 2024
While investors in the West are using the higher gold price to take profits, Chinese investors are continuing to accumulate.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 19 - Macro, Currencies & Precious Metals
April 16, 2024
Speculation against the Japanese yen is increasing. Asset managers' short positions in futures trading have increased once again. When so many investors speculate on the same trade, this often goes wrong as contrarians could speculate against it.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 18 - World Indices & Currencies
April 15, 2024
The strength of all other currencies determines how strong the US dollar is against them. And at the moment it looks as if some other currencies are stronger than the US dollar. This means that we should expect the US currency to weaken in the future...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 17 - Precious Metals
April 11, 2024
Precious metals appear to be overbought in the short term. But a Bank of America chart shows that 75% of professional investors have less than 1% of their asset allocation in Gold...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 16 - European Indices
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April 8, 2024
Not surprisingly, the German DAX index is still the best performer…
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 15 - Cycles, USD, Bitcoin & Precious Metals
April 3, 2024
Inflation is likely to calm down further for the time being. However, the low is expected to be reached towards the end of the current year and inflation is likely to become more of an issue again in 2025...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 14 - Economy, Oil & LNG
April 3, 2024
The copper/gold ratio is a very good indicator of boom times (copper) and doom times (gold). It is therefore not surprising that the ratio also has a high correlation with the US dollar - the mirror image of the US economy...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 13 - Precious Metals
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April 2, 2024
Smart investors continue to accumulate diligently in Gold. Only minor exaggerations on the part of the bulls...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 12 - World Indices
April 2, 2024
The combined indicators of the Dow Jones Index are still positive..
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 11 – Metals
March 26, 2024
Anyone who believes that the correlation between the gold price and the real rate of the US bond market no longer exists is not looking closely enough... the performance over the last six months shows an almost perfect correlation...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts No. 10 – Equities
March 26, 2024
Not entirely serious (the chart works as long as it works): The 1929 scenario is still relevant. 90% correlation...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 9 – Metals
March 19, 2024
While iron ore and coal are correcting massively, the price of copper is rising. If there were hopes for a stronger Chinese economy, all three commodities would have to rise.
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 8 – US Equity Markets
March 19, 2024
Even in relative comparison to tax revenues, the US state pays significantly less than it did nearly four decades ago, despite its much higher debt...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 7 – Gold & Silver
March 9, 2024
The Gold price is regaining strength against the US currency...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 6 – Equity Markets
February 27, 2024
No desire for change. The markets seem to be moving along the edge. Still up, but it’s going down on both sides...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 5 – US Economy
February 20, 2024
The indicators regarding the risk of recession are beginning to contradict each other, something never has happened before...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 4 – World Equity Markets
February 13, 2024
Of course, the Magnificent Sevent are again making a big contribution. They have set a new record in terms of market capitalization, but not (yet?) in terms of percentage weight within the Nasdaq 100...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 3 – World Equity Markets
February 6, 2024
Compared to the MSCI World, the S&P500 is still the prefered stock market...
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 2 – World Equity Markets & Precious Metals
January 30, 2024
The Skew/VIX ratio remains at a very high level. It indicates that long puts are being bought, but the low volatility (and thus the high ratio) lets us know that this is not out of fear or uncertainty..
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Pretiorates' Thoughts 1
January 16, 2024
The strength of the US Treasury yield over 10 years is having a positive impact: Rising market yields again would support a more positive economic picture.
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